Two kids, that just don’t like each other, took off the golden gloves for a pay per view event that no one wants to pay for in blood or treasure. With impeachment comes distraction, but this move is straight out of neo-con play book. Iran has been a target of the west since before I was born, but let us not forget the Axis of evil, from my 20’s, Iraq, Iran, and North Korea, branded by David Frum, a Canadian-American speech writer for President Bush. The president’s power, since the Bush Doctrine, has enabled Mr. Trump to take out General Soleimani, head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, in a Predator Drone strike, after his arrival at Baghdad International Airport days ago.
The use of the drone capability is nothing new to the American public or world, in 2016, under President Obama there were over 1,000 strikes in Afghanistan alone. Chiraq’s, Lupe Fiasco raps, “An Afghani kid without home, blew that bitch up with a drone, an Iraqi with no daddy, Palestine throwing stones,” the injustices of the Middle East have touched Hip-Hop, while citizens of Chicago struggle with gun violence. Can the US continue to use drone strikes and claim victory against terror, or are we just playing a game of wack a mole, while inner cities in the homeland deteriorate?
President Trump has had victories over ISIS, (With the help of the Kurds, later abandoned rather hastily) and the October Al-Baghdadi raid, but Soleimani, is a flush, (If we still put our enemies on playing cards, (I.e. Iraq) and the President seems to be all in.
I don’t think the public realizes the squeeze Mr. Trump has put on the Iranians since he withdrew from the nuclear deal on May 8, 2018, with the reinstatement of sanctions taking place in November. By phase two of sanctions, in May, the Iranian GDP was down 9.5% in 2019 and unemployment rose to 16.8%, according to the IMF. In the fall, 2019, Iranian oil exports declined by almost half, 2 million barrels a day; while the currency, the rial, lost half of its value, 13,650 rials to the dollar in early December 2019, as reported by Bonbast.com, a currency trader, for the people to trade on, because the fixed rate, is 42,000 rials to the dollar.
Inflation went on a rampage, kicking up dust in an ancient land, according to the Statistical Centre of Iran, the consumer price index, 12 month rate of inflation, 42%, in October 2019. The World Bank reported meat products were up 116% and the government banned exports on livestock, as it drastically imported sheep and cows. It hasn’t been easy on the everyday citizen of current Iran, but wait, it gets worse.
President Rouhani, pulled the rug out of any economic gains the working class were tightly clinging to when he doubled gas prices, in November, and limited private cars to 60 liters a month, at 15,000 rials per liter, or $0.12, lowest in the world. Once an individual passes the limit, 60 liters, the price doubles again, bingo! Mr. Rouhani knows his sanctions and how to treat his people, no, that can’t be right with all the protests in the last couple months.
Again, something I found to be under reported, was the uprising of the people. Protests erupted like a volcano at the middle school science fair, across dozens of cities in November, shutting down roads, battling the Revolutionary guard, and chanting, “We don’t want an Islamic Republic, we don’t want it, we don’t want it,” from a middle class Tehran neighborhood reported by the New York Times. Remember, these actions are outlawed in Iran.
The Iranian government admitted killing protesters during the rioting and causing an internet black out. Amnesty International is estimating 208 deaths, but Iranian judiciary officials strongly disagree, with the number and evidence. One thing, has become crystal clear; the budget was in the red by 2/3’s and the regime was forced to act out of necessity.
Iranian forces, Quds, Shia militias, Revolutionary guard, and other actors have been keeping busy digging a covert thorn into the assets of the Saudi’s, Israelis, British, and the Americans. In July, the Iranians seized a British tanker, in the Strait of Hormuz, for violating maritime regulations, probably a repercussion from the Brits plucking an Iranian supertanker two weeks earlier, in the British territory of Gibraltar, suspected of delivering 2.1 million barrels of oil to Syria, a violation with the EU. Once released, the tanker, Adrian Darya, turned off its transponder and was seen near the Syrian port of Tartus through satellite imagery, but resurfaced the next week in the Mediterranean , to unload its cargo, to an unknown country.
The kids have been throwing sand all summer, stemming from 4 explosives attacks, in May, on ships in the Gulf of Oman, with the addition of 2 fires on tankers in the same area in June. Let us not forget the 100 million dollar drone, U.S. Navy RQ-4A Global Hawk, which was shot down on June 20th over the Strait of Hormuz, although no one can agree of the exact location, not like we have GPS everywhere. Mr. Trump took this sweet chin music pretty good and stopped his planned attack, and claimed to save a lot, a lot, of lives in his dove making decision policy.
In September, the Saudi Aramco oil processing
facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais, were struck by Yemen rebels with the Houthi
movement, in a drone attack, cutting the Saudi market by half, and a 5% dip in
the world supplies. Most speculate, this was much too sophisticated, for a
rebel movement with limited resources to pull off on their own. The finger was pointed at Iran. We would find
out later who Trump really wanted after this attack, “Where’s al-Baghdadi? I want al-Baghdadi.” He succeeded in killing 2 big names, one,
state sponsored, and defeated Isis but at what risk?
The President was damned if he did, and damned if he didn’t give the green light for a Hellfire missile shot from the heavens by a robot, piloted by men and women sitting in a mobile command unit in the dessert, while he ordered Uber Eats. If he didn’t go with double the meat and extra hot sauce, and the Embassy fell, victimized like a Benghazi, amid the recent protests, he would be toast. Good news for the president, Iran’s initial response has been rather tame, launching a dozen or so missiles into far off bases in Iraq. No one seems to know if they were ballistic or not, but no causalities have been reported. The cries of deescalation can be heard from the far left, “The American People don’t want war with Iran,” unfortunately the people don’t vote on war powers, Congress does, even though Bush set the current engagement rules, for a president, 19 years ago.
Although the Donald has been against foreign occupation and aligned with Rand Paul, and a no intervention policy, as Tulsi Gabbard preaches, it feels like 2003, the sport edition. Mr. Trump keeps sending more troops and assets to the region. He talks tough as usual, “52 sites,” if you raise a hand in retaliation. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, seems to be leading this charge, since the departure of John Bolton. Hopefully, the President remembers his promise of no regime change wars and the blasting he gave his opponents in the primary for their support of the Iraq war.
One lesson I learned from the invasion of Iraq was, once the US commits the resources, they have no choice, it doesn’t matter about weapons inspections or compliance. We had aircraft carriers deployed and troops on the ground, an investment was made. Not to police the world, but to reshape the geopolitical landscape through regime change. This is exactly what the founders had warned us against, but history remains to repeat itself.
